Week 1 Lines I'm Jumping on NOW

Tennessee -33.5 v. Ball State

I have Ball State rated as the worst team in the MAC. I have Tennessee rated as the 11th-best team in the entire country. My numbers show this spread being about 39, and I expect the spread to trend closer to that number. Tennessee will absolutely dominate the trenches in this game, meaning I expect them to completely control both sides of the ball. The big number here doesn’t scare me for a few reasons. First, this is an air raid offense to the highest degree. This isn’t a team that’s going to run the ball 65% of the time like Alabama will do against Utah State. There will be plenty of opportunities to score, especially if Ball State’s corners struggle as much as I expect. Secondly, this team needs to get rolling immediately. They can’t afford to wait to work out any kinks being they have to travel to Pittsburgh to play the Panthers in a non-con game Week 2. I like this number where it is currently, being under 35. I’d take this number up to 40, but I see a ton of value in grabbing this number below 35.

ODU +8.5 v. Virginia Tech

I’m relatively high on Old Dominion, and very low on Virginia Tech. After taking 2020 off, ODU started 1-6 last year. However, they finished with 5 straight wins and qualified for a bowl. The offense really got going during those 5 games, averaging 36 PPG during that stretch. They return 90% of their production on that side of the ball, and I expect them to keep rolling. On defense, they return all 4 starting linemen, which is important in this matchup. Virginia Tech brings in Clemson OC Brent Pry as their new head coach and brings in turnover-prone quarterback Grant Wells, a transfer from Marshall, to lead the offense. The glaring weakness of this team is the offensive line as they are forced to shuffle the two returning starters to new positions after losing 3 others. There isn't a ton of depth on this line; Wells could be making some questionable throws due to pressure. They also lose their top two receivers, which will make it tough for them to exploit ODU’s below-average secondary. I have this game pegged closer to ODU +4, and will be sprinkling the moneyline.

Utah -2.5 @ Florida

I’m really trusting the numbers on this one because I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous. I have Utah as a touchdown favorite in Gainesville, and I could certainly see the line start to move that way, especially given it’s current state will field considerable Utah action. Utah has the pieces to go into an SEC stadium and leave with a win: strong in the trenches, top-level quarterback play, and elite coaching. What Florida will be this year is anyone’s guess. They bring in Napier as HC, who will install his spread-option offense that is tailor-made for the supremely talented QB Anthony Richardson. Outside of that, there are a lot of question marks on this team. The defense was bad last year and loses half its production. The secondary is the most experienced, while the LB and DL units are talented but unproven. Florida doesn’t return a rusher who had over 100 yards last season, nor do they have an elite receiver, which means Richardson doesn't have anyone to fall back on when Utah starts getting pressure. This game won’t be easy for either team, but I do agree with the numbers that Utah’s experience and continuity from last season should be a stark advantage. I would struggle to take this game over 3.5, even though the numbers love the play. -2.5 is the sweet spot for me.

Arkansas -5.5 v. Cincinnati

I have this line at -8.5. Arkansas is a very good football team and is probably a little undervalued here given the division they compete in. QB KJ Jefferson is back, as are both coordinators and 4/5 linemen. They land WR Haselwood in the transfer portal to help ease the loss of Treylon Burks, and TE Trey Knox could emerge as a star. On defense, they lose a lot but reload with plenty of 4-star talent, including the addition of former 5-star Drew Sanders via the portal. Arkansas should pick up where they left off last year. Cincinnati, coming off a playoff berth, will not benefit from a returning signal caller. Luckily, they return all 5 starts on the offensive line, which will ease the transition at QB. The weakness of this 2022 Cincy team will be the secondary, which is a brutal unit to be lacking in a road game versus an SEC team with a spread inside 6. Cincy is strong in the trenches, but I don't anticipate that being enough to keep this game within 1 score.

Michigan -27.5 v. Colorado State

This is another great football number. I think 4 touchdowns is extremely doable for what will be an electric Michigan offense. I don’t love this number much higher than this, which is why I’m getting in on this now. I anticipate the line moving closer to what I have it pegged at, Michigan -30. Colorado State will be a very middle-of-the-road Mountain West team. The defense brings back a few key players in the middle, but the unit as a whole gets a makeover by the addition of DC Freddie Banks. On offense, new head coach Jay Norvell brings with him the bulk of Nevada’s offense last year, less Carson Strong who went pro. All this to say, this is a lot of change and growing pains are to be expected, especially in the Big House. Even without growing pains, CSU lacks the talent in the trenches to match up with Michigan, or the skill on the outside to create any separation. Michigan brings back everyone on offense and will score a ton of points. They should be able to score at will against CSU, it’s just a matter of how much the Michigan offensive staff wants to put on film. Michigan should win this game by 4+ scores, but over 30 would cause me to pause.

TCU -11 @ Colorado

I’m mostly betting this because I’m going to this game with a TCU fan. Despite this, I still have this spread at about -13.5, meaning my numbers like this play. Colorado is going to be very, very bad this year. They lost every meaningful contributor to the transfer portal, and bring in one of the worst OCs in college football in Mike Sanford Jr. Sanford took over at Notre Dame in 2015, had a great year, then drove the offense into the ground in 2016. He commanded one of the worst offenses in the FBS last year at Minnesota. My expectations for this offense couldn’t be lower. On the flip side, I like Max Duggan a lot, Quentin Johnston is an animal, and we really don’t know what to expect from Sonny Dykes. There isn’t film on this new rendition of TCU, and I expect Colorado to be incredibly unprepared. TCU out-talents Colorado in every unit, and should flex this talent in Boulder.