Win Total Weekday - Nebraska u7.5

When everyone zigs, I zag. Well, not usually, but in this case I am. I don’t think Nebraska is going to win 8 games. I’ve heard a lot about how they were the greatest 3-win team of all time, and by many metrics, they very well could’ve been. But win total bets aren’t cashed on the metrics. Many people are correct to point out that Nebraska’s “bad luck” extends well past last season. They’ve been losing close games the entirety of Scott Frost’s tenure. At some point, we all just need to recognize them for what they are; a team that loses close games. In the Athlon preview, an anonymous coach had a quote about Nebraska that summed them up well: “We call it the all-bus team because they look better than anyone else in the West pregame…after a quarter or so, you stop worrying because they’re usually hurting themselves. They struggle with turnovers, they struggle with technique. I think it’s a culture issue.” Scott Frost has had 4 straight losing seasons, and I don’t see why this is the year they suddenly eclipse 8 wins. One reason the Nebraska-stans will point to is the quarterback play. Adrian Martinez moved on to Kansas State as Casey Thompson transferred in to assume the starting role. Thompson, who played last season with Texas, lead the Big 12 with 24 TDs. Thompson certainly benefitted from playing in the same offense has highly recruited skill guys Bijan Robinson and Xaiver Worthy. It’s no secret that Thompson will be working with less talent this season. Mark Whipple, who led an excellent Pitt passing attack a year ago, comes in to coordinate an offense that would be better suited as a run-heavy attack. Scott Frost replaced every coach on the offensive side of the ball, except one. This offense should look very different from a year ago, the question is if they’ll be able to put it all together early enough in the year to rip out 8 wins. The defense will be good, not great. Despite only returning 57% of their defensive production from 2021, the Cornhuskers return 4 of their 5 leading tacklers: 3 linebackers and a corner. They landed second-team All-Big 12 defensive end, Ochuan Mathis, in the transfer portal from TCU. Outside of that, the defense lacks experience, but not talent. Now the schedule:

The schedule isn’t all that tough considering they avoid Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State from the East. Getting Minnesota and Wisconsin at home helps as well. They very well could be 3-0 going into the Oklahoma matchup, but wouldn’t it also be the most Scott Frost-thing ever to go to Dublin and lose to Northwestern Week 1? I can already hear the Nebraska-stans Ireland-based excuses. Nebraska very well could go 4-0 in October, only to face a brutal stretch against the top 3 teams in the West, and Michigan, to end the season. I have a much easier time finding 5 losses on this schedule rather than 8 wins. I think it is completely unrealistic for Nebraska to almost triple their win total from a season ago. Various publications throw around the phrase “statistical anomaly” in regards to Nebraska’s performance a year ago, Isn’t it far more likely that Scott Frost is a bad coach incapable of winning close games, rather than Nebraska is just improbably unlucky? Scott Frost has been trying to tell us for 5 years who he is; I’m here to say it’s time we listen, and hammer Nebraska u7.5 RSW -115.