Win Total Weekday - Wisconsin UNDER 9 Wins

This line opened at 8.5 and juiced to the over at -145. The second this line jumped to 9, I hammered the under at -110. I think a push is likely as 9-3 seems to be right in Wisconsin’s wheelhouse, but a 10-win season for this team is very unlikely. The worst-case scenario for this bet is a push. Graham Mertz returns under center for the Badgers as he looks to recreate those 4 good quarters of football he played 2 years ago. Since then, he’s been awful. To get to 9 wins, Mertz has to be better, but will he be? One preview magazine I was reading pointed out how much better Mertz was in November and the bowl game. He had 7 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in that time. If this is the standard for improved play, then the Badgers are screwed.

There is reason for optimism for the Badgers offense as 17-year-old Braelon Allen returns after an incredible freshman season, and will again be one of the best running backs in the country this year. Opposing defenses needing to respect Allen’s ability will open windows for Mertz in the passing game, it’s just a matter if he can hit them. The Badgers are thin and inexperienced at wide receiver as they return only 1 receiver who had more than 100 receiving yards last season in Chimere Dike. Markus Allen and Skyler Bell are talented freshmen that will need to step up big time for this team to have a chance in the passing game. The offensive line loses two players to the NFL but does return 3 all-conference honorable mentions. The offensive line doesn’t project to be a top 10 unit in the country as Wisconsin has had in the past, but Braelon Allen will at least make their jobs easy in the rushing game.

The defense is returning only 59% of their production after a historical season a year ago. In 2021, Wisconsin ranked first in the country in total defense, yards per play, and rushing defense. They’ll be tasked with replacing two 100-tackle linebackers in Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenel, in addition to 6 other starting spots. The good news is they’re replacing the defensive holes with a whole bunch of 4 stars. This defense could start slow, but with Jim Leonard’s leadership, it should be another top 25 unit in Madison. Will that be enough to get the Badgers to 9 wins?

Looking at their schedule, I struggle to find 9 wins. They play 4 tough road games against Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Michigan State. The home slate is manageable with the toughest two matchups against Purdue and Minnesota. The Badgers will be favored in both games, but Minnesota has given the Badgers fits the last few years and Purdue will have the clear quarterback advantage. The non-con features only 1 game that could potentially be a loss and that’s when Washington State comes to town in week 2 with electric transfer quarterback, Cam Ward. This schedule at face value isn’t all the tough, but Graham Mertz has a habit of making things a lot harder on himself than they need to be. If Mertz isn’t any better, and the defense takes a significant step back, both of which are very possible, this team could realistically go 0-3 in their final 3 games, and .500 on the road overall. To get to 9 wins or more, Wisconsin will need a lot of things to break their way, not just on their team but their opponents as well. Though I think it's a coin flip whether they win 8 or 9 games, I am extremely confident I won't be losing any money on this bet. Hammer Wisconsin under 9 regular season wins.