Win Total Weekend - BYU OVER 8.5 Wins

BYU, a 10-win team a year ago, returns about as much production as anyone in the country, including a whopping 97% on defense. The defense wasn’t spectacular last season as they were bit by the injury bug early and the backups stepping in never found their footing. Familiarity and health will go a long way for defensive coordinator Ilaisa Tuiaki this season; if the defense can stay healthy, vast improvement is in store. The offense loses running back Tyler Allgeier to the NFL but adds transfer Christopher Brooks, who led the Cal Bears in rushing last season with 607 yards. Jaren Hall is back after leading a Cougars offense that ranked 6th nationwide in offensive efficiency and 7th nationwide in explosiveness. Expect more of that this season. Leading receivers Puka Nacua (all-name team) and Gunner Romney (lol) are back for more, as is future first-round LT Blake Freeland. The offense has all the key pieces to continue last year’s excellence and the defense has the experience to make significant strides, particularly in the secondary. All this to say, BYU is going to have a hell of a football team and will score a boatload of points…now what about the schedule?

It’s no secret that BYU benefitted from a softer schedule last season, with the only tough road game being at Baylor, a game they lost. They did beat Utah at home early in the season. The way I see it, BYU has 4 very tough matchups: at home v. Baylor in week 2, at Oregon in week 3, a neutral site game against Notre Dame in week 6, and at home versus Arkansas in week 7. The two home games are the most realistic wins out of these 4. Notre Dame will be coming off a bye week, and their fans will travel to Allegiant Stadium in Vegas for that game. Having to travel to Eugene on the heels of playing Baylor also works out unfavorably for BYU. But remember, Notre Dame and Oregon have new coaches and starting quarterbacks. If there was going to be a year where BYU beats both Oregon and Notre Dame in 4 weeks, it’d be this year. Something about Bo Nix and Tyler Buckner just doesn’t scare me. Despite this, BYU will surely be the underdog in both games, and I don’t anticipate they win.

However, at home versus Baylor is a very winnable game. Baylor will no doubt be a good football team but traveling to Provo early in the year with new QB Blake Shapen under center is no easy task. BYU beat a very good Utah team at home early in the year last season, I expect another convincing, early season win. BYU faces Arkansas at an opportune time as Arkansas’ 3 games before traveling to Provo are as follows: neutral site v. A&M, home v. Alabama, @ Mississippi State. Compounding this stretch with the altitude in Provo, BYU should be able to run circles around Arkansas.

I very much so believe 10-2 is achievable for this experienced BYU team, which would put us safely over the 8.5 total. The schedule at face value seems daunting, but BYU will be presented with plenty of opportunities to capitalize, and I anticipate they do. BYU OVER 8.5 RSWs +130, lock it in.